통계적 기법에 대한 엄밀한 증명보다 계량 분석 모형의 핵심 아이디어를 직관적으로 설명하고자 한 본 저서는 특히 국내의 교육연구자들에게도 큰 가치를 지닐 것이라 생각합니다. 본 저서에서 다루고 있는 많은 방법은 계량경제학 분야에서 개발되고 경제학 분야에서 널리 활용된 방법으로 의학, 생물통계학, 교육학 등에서도 응용되고 있는 추세입니다. 이러한 방법을 차근히 익힘으로써 독자 여러분은 해당 방법론을 개발한 선행 연구자들의 아이디어를 이해할 수 있을 것입니다. 또한, 이 저서의 큰 장점은 단순히 이론을 설명하는 데 그치지 않고 다양한 통계분석법을 실제 분석에 적용하는 방법과 적용 단계에서 발생하는 다양한 이슈에 대해 선행연구자들이 어떻게 대처했는가를 다루었다는 것입니다. 대체적으로 많은 이론서는 이론만을 수식으로 전개하다 보니 이를 실제 분석에서 구현하기 위해 별도로 수고를 들여야 하는 경우가 많습니다. 반면, 실제 분석 과정을 다룬 저서의 경우, 지나치게 기술적인 측면만을 강조하다 보니 그 원리를 이해하기 어렵고 기계적으로 분석 단계만을 받아들이게 되어 연구 과정에서 의도치 않은 실수나 오류를 범하게 되는 경우도 있습니다. 이 저서를 읽다 보면, 저자인 머네인(Murnane)과 윌렛(Willett)이 그러한 한계를 새기고 이론과 실제의 균형을 잡기 위해 노력하였다는 흔적을 곳곳에서 찾을 수 있습니다. 1장에서 3장은 그와 같이 교육 연구에서의 인과 추론을 위한 여러 조건을 제시하고 있습니다. 또한, 4장에서 5장은 연구 설계에서 매우 중요한 가정 중 하나라고 할 수 있는 무선할당에 대해 다룹니다. 6장은 통계적 검정력과 표본 크기로 이론적 논의와 달리 실제 표본을 적절한 크기에서 정해야 하는 연구자들에게 도움이 되는 내용을 다루고 있습니다. 7장은 무선 할당을 교육학에서 흔히 발생하는 다층 구조의 상황으로 확장한 것으로, 최근 교육학에서 널리 사용되는 다층 모형에 관심 있는 독자에게 유용할 것입니다. 8장 이후에는 자연 실험 설계를 다루고 9장에서는 회귀 불연속, 10장과 11장에서 걸쳐서는 도구변수를 다룹니다. 그리고 12장에 대해서는 비실험 설계에서 비롯되는 편의를 교정하기 위한 제안을 다루는데, 역시 최근 교육학에서 많은 연구자들이 관심을 가지고 있는 경향점수 방식을 소개합니다. 이와 같이, 이 저서에서는 연구 설계와 관련된 여러 이슈를 폭넓게 다루고 있습니다. 따라서, 전반적으로 연구와 방법론에 대한 개론을 펼치는 1장부터 읽을 수도 있겠으나, 경우에 따라 연구에 필요한 부분만을 선별하여 활용할 수도 있을 것입니다.

서문/ 3 Chapter 01 교육연구와 인과추론 교육연구에서 인과추론의 역사 ············································································· 13 인과추론에 대한 전 세계적 관심 ··········································································· 20 이 책의 개요 ······································································································· 21 더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 23 Chapter 02 이론의 중요성 이론이란 무엇인가? ······························································································ 28 교육학에서의 이론 ······························································································ 32 바우처 이론 ········································································································ 34 어떤 종류의 이론인가? ························································································· 37 더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 38 Chapter 03 인과적 질문을 위한 연구 설계 좋은 연구의 조건 ································································································· 42 인과추론의 조건 ·································································································· 44 인과추론에 대한 과거의 접근 방식 ······································································· 47 인과추론의 핵심 문제 ··························································································· 49 더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 54 Chapter 04 연구자-설계 무선 할당 실험 무선 할당 실험 ··································································································· 60 무선 할당 실험에서의 데이터 분석 ······································································· 67 더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 79 Chapter 05 연구자-설계 무선 할당 실험에서의 이슈들 실험 설계 시 핵심적인 결정 사항 ·········································································· 84 무선 할당 실험의 타당성을 저해하는 요소들 ························································ 92 무선 할당 실험에 대한 피험자들의 저항에 대처하기：인도의 사례 ······················ 97 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 105 Chapter 06 통계적 검정력과 표본 크기 통계적 검정력 ···································································································· 110 통계적 검정력에 영향을 미치는 요인 ·································································· 122 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 134 Chapter 07 군집 수준의 무선 할당 실험 확률 절편 다층모형을 활용한 집단 수준의 처치 효과 추정 ································· 141 군집 수준 무선 할당 실험에서의 통계적 검정력 ················································· 151 고정효과 다층모형을 활용한 처치효과 추정 ······················································· 158 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 165 Chapter 08 자연 실험 연구 자연 실험과 연구자 설계 실험의 비교 ································································ 170 자연 실험의 두 가지 연구 사례 ··········································································· 171 자연 실험 사례 찾기 ··························································································· 180 분석 대상의 범위 선정 문제 ··············································································· 184 자연 실험 연구의 타당도에 영향을 미치는 요인 ················································· 187 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 199 Chapter 09 회귀 불연속 설계 학급당 학생 수가 학업 성취도에 미치는 영향 ····················································· 204 결과변수와 할당변수의 관계 일반화하기 ···························································· 224 회귀 불연속 설계의 타당성에 대한 추가적인 위협 ·············································· 235 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 240 Chapter 10 도구변수 추정에 대한 소개 도구변수 분석에 대한 소개 ················································································· 244 교육수준이 시민참여에 미치는 인과적 영향에 대한 OLS 추정치에서 발생하는 편의 ···································································································· 247 도구변수 추정 ···································································································· 255 IVE(도구변수 추정)의 두 가지 주요 가정 ··························································· 264 도구변수 추정치를 얻기 위한 대안적인 방법들 ················································· 267 도구변수 추정 접근의 확장 ················································································· 278 도구변수 탐색 및 방어하기 ················································································· 294 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 305 Chapter 11 준실험에서 처치 효과를 구하기 위한 도구변수의 활용 “준실험”의 개념 ································································································ 311 준실험에서 처치의 인과효과를 추정하기 위해 도구변수 활용하기 ····················· 312 준실험 맥락에서 도구변수 추정치에 대한 더 깊은 통찰 ······································ 318 회귀 불연속 설계에서의 “불분명함”을 해결하기 위해 도구변수 추정 활용하기 ··· 323 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 328 Chapter 12 비실험자료로 추정된 처치 효과의 편의 교정 층화 방법을 통해 관측 편의 줄이기 ···································································· 333 회귀분석에서 공변인 직접 통제를 통해 관측 편의 줄이기 ·································· 349 경향점수 접근을 통해 관측 편의 줄이기 ····························································· 354 경향점수 매칭을 활용한 처치 효과 추정 ····························································· 364 실제적인 질문 ···································································································· 372 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 373 Chapter 13 오랜 탐구로 얻은 방법론적 교훈 확실한 이론을 가져라 ························································································· 378 연구 대상과 관련된 문화, 규칙, 제도를 파악하라 ··············································· 380 반사실(counterfactual)을 이해하라 ································································· 382 선택 편의를 항상 경계하라 ················································································· 383 다양한 결과변수를 사용하라 ·············································································· 385 장기적 영향을 고려하라 ····················································································· 386 하위집단에 대한 효과를 검증하라 ······································································ 387 결과를 정확하게 해석하라 ·················································································· 389 비정상적인 결과에 주목하라 ·············································································· 391 좋은 연구는 언제나 새로운 질문으로 이어진다 ·················································· 392 더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 394 Chapter 14 중요한 교훈과 앞으로의 과제 정책 가이드라인 1：학교 입학을 위한 비용(등록금)을 줄여라 ··························· 399 정책 가이드라인 2：아이들의 일상적인 학교생활을 변화시켜라 ························ 402 정책 가이드라인 3：동기부여를 개선하라 ························································· 406 정책 가이드라인 4：가난한 학생들에게 보다 많은 학교교육 선택지를 제공하라 ············································································ 412 요 약 ················································································································ 415 나가며 ·············································································································· 417 참고문헌 ··········································································································· 418 찾아보기 ··········································································································· 434